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As we travel through this Pandemic, I keep coming back to a “make sense of it” model that was introduced to me by my daughter-in-law as she completed her MBA. It’s called the Cynefin Model and was created by David Snowden and other colleagues at IBM in 1999.
Take a look below and note the quadrants. Download the model for reference, as it may be a strong point of reference for you in the weeks and months ahead!
The Cynefin Model is generally referred to as a “sense-making” model. The word Cynefin is Welsh for “habitat”. The word itself makes me think about two questions:
(1) what are we currently inhabiting, and (2) how does my normal habitat (framework) help or hinder my new and unfamiliar situation.
Notice in the Cynefin Model above, the model doesn’t create a straight line between the quadrants. At the very center of the model is “disorder” and I frankly like the fluid lines. It’s my experience that sense making is in itself more fluid.
The Cynefin Model is generally referred to as a “sense-making” model. The word Cynefin is Welsh for “habitat”. The word itself makes me think about two questions: (1) what are we currently inhabiting, and (2) how does my normal habitat (framework) help or hinder my new and unfamiliar situation. Notice in the Cynefin Model above, the model doesn’t create a straight line between the quadrants. At the very center of the model is “disorder” and I frankly like the fluid lines. It’s my experience that sense making is in itself more fluid.
COVID-19
Clearly, under COVID-19, the disorder component of the Cynefin Model fits all too well. Wouldn’t you agree? For our example, where the Model states “disorder”, substitute COVID-19 and your responsibilities.
Next, let’s move to the obvious box. This box assumes we obviously know what is obvious (laugh here)! There is a best practice, we know what to do. We simply need to hunker down and do it. For example, during the very early stages of the pandemic everyone talked about it being a simple variation of the flu, and we knew what to do. In your business and life, you have best practices you were following. As“ the pandemic news spiked, I spoke with colleagues who were dusting off old SARS documentation. We were feeling like, “We have this!“
Now note the squiggly line at the bottom. That “fishhook” reminds us that when we are “hunkering down,” doing a lot more of the same practices, we should ask ourselves if we are headed to chaos.
The complicated box is when we know the questions … we just don’t know the answers. We turn to the experts. In COVID-19, we look to Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx to give us informed messages about virus transmission and mitigation. We know they don’t have a full scale “best practice” yet, but we think they have some good ones at hand. We weigh their responses – they weigh their responses – against other experts that may be in other countries, other agencies, other labs.
In the complex arena, we know neither the answers nor the questions. This is the hard box, but also where true innovation takes place. With COVID-19, as we consider longer mitigations, re-openings, treatments, and vaccines we are often in the Complex arena. We are probing, making small experiments, testing the data. And most importantly, asking, “What should we ask?” and “What is a reasonably small and reasonably safe experiment?”
Because in Chaotic, all we can do is hunker down
As we have moved through this very short and very intense crisis, it’s helpful to me to see actions and analysis through the lens of this Model. We have watched government daily in every area of the model. In many areas, more aspects of the virus are beginning to make sense. But in many other aspects, we are still figuring out the right questions to ask. You can’t get to good answers without good questions.
The Model applies to us personally and in business as well. We have watched some restaurateurs pivot, ask good questions, try new ways to stay in business, experiment, and gain increased loyalty. We have stood awed by the way product manufacturers are pivoting and making sanitizer instead of alcoholic beverages. We’ve applauded hospitals who quickly adapted. We’ve changed the way we work, shop and interact. In some cases, we have been Chaotic, in others we have stood firm in the Obvious,“ and other times we have looked to experts or hopefully paused to ask “are we asking the right questions?”
This will be the same as we move to Re-entry. On a personal level, I think it is important to simply ask: In which quadrant does this situation fall? Is there a best practice or a good practice for me to follow? Do I need a few experiments – my own or others – as I ask more questions? In my business – as a leader – where do I stand? What is obvious is that we just need to get on with it. But just as critical – perhaps more so – is, what have I learned – about the marketplace, about my organizational talent, about the way we work?
Winners and Losers
This crisis will have winners and losers. Businesses that thrive will do so because they took the time to look at the components of the disorder. It’s my hope that the Cynefin Model allows you to create a new and improved habitat. One that will serve you, your customers, your team, your stakeholders and you!
Please let me know if we can help. We pride ourselves on being Experts in the People Side of Business!
